Theme B: Emerging Powers in a Changing Global Order
Japan’s Emerging Power in Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Peacebuilding
In an increasingly multipolar world, new powers are emerging to shape a more cooperative international order. Among them, Japan stands out through its persistent dedication to the maintenance of nuclear non-proliferation with an independent role that is deviated from US-led diplomacy. In December 2023, Japan activated a real-time North Korea missile warning data sharing system with the United States and South Korea together to enable faster and coordinated responses to North Korean nuclear launches. Japan’s Ministry of Education also signed a Statement of Intent with the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration to enhance proliferation-resistant reactor design and ensure nuclear technology exports conform to strict non-proliferation standards in April 2024. Similar actions can be traced back to the 1950s when Japan tried to recover from World War II and nuclear attacks.
Japan’s foundational motivation in promoting non-proliferation stems from its painful experience as a country that suffered atomic bombings during World War II. In August 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb called “Little Boy” on the city of Hiroshima, followed by a second atomic bomb called “Fat Man” dropped on Nagasaki three days later. The devastation of the bombing of Japan was brutal and prolonged. Hiroshima was home to over 280,000 civilians and 43,000 soldiers at the time of the bombing. However, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, there were more than 200,000 fatalities as a result of the bombing after 5 years, including burns, radiation diseases, and cancer.
The atomic bombings left lasting scars on the Japanese psyche and laid the foundation for Japan’s postwar identity. Japan adopted the Three Non-Nuclear Principles in 1967, which stipulated not possessing, not producing, and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons and aligned with Japan's Peace Constitution. Japan, as a nation with the technology to develop nuclear weapons, publicly promising not to pursue this path, proves that an advanced nation can forgo nuclear deterrence while remaining secure and influential. To prevent other countries from repeating its traumatic experience, Japan has actively engaged in global nuclear governance and has taken a leading role in promoting non-proliferation efforts.
Besides historical causality, Japan aims to enhance its political status by taking an assertive role in solving the nuclear crisis in partnership with the United States and South Korea. Since 2003, Japan has participated in the Six-Party Talks with other countries, including China, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. A series of multilateral negotiations to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear program have led to the temporary commitment of North Korea to abandon all its nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs and return to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Japan’s involvement demonstrates its commitment to transnational conflict resolution, moving beyond reliance on the United States and asserting itself as an emerging regional security guarantor. The process also cultivated closer cooperation among the above countries and laid the groundwork for trilateral missile warning and sharing systems between Japan, South Korea, and the United States.
Moreover, the development of intercontinental ballistic missile capability in 2017 by North Korea accelerated U.S.–Japan–South Korea security dialogue. Facilitated by the United States, Japan and South Korea signed a military intelligence-sharing pact (GSOMIA), which focused on real-time sharing of intelligence on North Korean missiles and military activities, in November 2016. By 2019, Tokyo and Seoul had exchanged military intelligence 29 times since the agreement's ratification. Thus, Japan’s advanced intelligence and anti-submarine warfare capabilities will allow South Korea to detect North Korea’s provocations promptly, and directly sharing military intelligence with Japan will also be more efficient. By consolidating the institutional mechanism of U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation through GSOMIA, Japan ensures close security cooperation regardless of power transitions in both the United States and South Korea.
This close trilateral cooperative relationship continues through the North Korea missile warning data sharing systems. Established in December 2023, the system significantly improves the speed and accuracy of threat assessments during North Korean missile launches, allowing for more coordinated and timely responses to potential attacks. By actively confronting the North Korean threat through actionable intelligence sharing, Japan has transitioned from passive dependence, primarily on US-led diplomacy, to an active contributor to global stability, enhancing its international political status and leverage in broader affairs.
Additionally, promoting nuclear non-proliferation is a measure for Japan to build a more profound economic influence. In April 2024, Japan’s Ministry of Education signed a Statement of Intent with the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration and agreed to cooperate under the Proliferation Resistance Optimization (PRO-X) Program. The goal is to integrate non-proliferation features into reactor designs and therefore prevent reactors from being exported to be used as weapons. The PRO-X Program is a marketing strategy that allows Japan to offer technology with approved quality within a market of nations aware of non-proliferation, surpassing competitors from other countries like Russia or China. Aligning with the United States, a crucial regulator of global nuclear trade, is also a smart move: Japan not only elevates the prestige of its own nuclear exports but also shapes international norms around responsible reactor deployment, thus enhancing its economic influence. Accordingly, Japan transforms its commitment to peace into a competitive economic advantage, securing its role as a trusted supplier in the global nuclear industry.
However, the existing non-proliferation framework, which Japan supports, has failed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technology, especially since North Korea’s withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003. Therefore, new strategies, including initiating new peace talks within the existing framework and having neutral countries act as mediators, should be practiced to address the limitation at its root. A reconvened Six-Party Talks is necessary, for it is a forum that discusses North Korea's nuclear issues with multilateral stakeholders at the same table. Given that the primary factor of the dissolution of the Six-Party Talks in 2009 is the inability of all sides to trust the intentions of one another, a reconvened one needs to integrate neutral UN observers in order to mediate conflicts and establish trust among member nations. Furthermore, Japan should offer North Korea a treaty that promises security and ends sanctions in exchange for nuclear disarmament in order to incentivize North Korea to actively agree on non-proliferation. Thus, Japan may create a regional nuclear risk reduction center to facilitate real-time communication and prevent misinterpretation of military exercises. Finally, these diplomatic efforts must be supported by a long-term multinational education campaign to foster a generational change in public understanding of nuclear threats, building the foundation for a globally sustainable and peaceful future.